Paging the "Party of God"
Lebanon's Shi'ite Hizballah militia nasty surprise.
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SYNOPSIS
Israeli intelligence agencies have long been known for their creative methods of dealing with perceived terrorist threats against their country and people. The use of explosive-laden cell phones, surreptitiously provided to terrorist targets and then triggered by a phone call and tonal signal, is part of their innovative clandestine techniques. Like their rivals, they also employ remotely detonated car bombs.
Given the wide range of politically charged opinions related to Israel, Zionism, and their military actions, this article will focus solely on the nature and logistics of one of the most incredible intelligence operations this author has ever witnessed. We will also attempt, at this early stage, to ascertain the ramifications for the remaining leadership of Hizb’allah and their puppet masters in Iran.
When reading this article, it is essential to remember that the Middle East is a very rough “neighborhood.” If the roles were reversed and Israel's enemies possessed such capabilities, it is our opinion that they would not hesitate to conduct the same style of operation against Israeli leadership.
TREATMENT
Yesterday, on 17 September 2024, at around 15:30 local Lebanon time, hundreds (possibly thousands) of Gold Apollo AP924 pagers exploded. They were carried by leaders and important contacts within the Hizb’allah (Party of God) organization. Current reports indicate that 12 individuals have been killed, with over 500 more blinded. Others have suffered grievous wounds, including the loss of hands and fingers, while thousands more have sustained injuries of varying severity. The casualty count is still rising and will likely continue to do so in the coming days. It is logical that Hizb’allah would want to downplay the operation's success and its impact on their leadership structure as much as possible. However, reports suggest that hospitals in Lebanon are filled with victims, making it difficult to conceal the scale of the event.
Image found at this link: https://www.yahoo.com/gma/wireless-devices-explode-hands-owners-141057548.html
Most importantly, one of the individuals who suffered eye injuries is reported to be the Iranian Ambassador to Lebanon, Mojtaba Amani, who is widely believed to be a member of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (IRGC), the forefront supporters of Hizb’allah in Lebanon. This is a critical development and may significantly impact Iran's role in Lebanon, as distrust will likely surround any new replacement.
As for the Israelis, it is quite apparent that they were behind the operation, but the less they say, the better. They let their actions speak for themselves, and "bragging" gains them nothing. It is more strategic to maintain "plausible deniability" and preserve the "shock and awe" wrapped in its aura of mystery, much like the bombing of Hamas Political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran at the end of July 2024.
There are also reports of pager explosions in Syria among members fighting there, though details, if any, are still pending. We will need to monitor hospital admissions in Syria as well.
This was an extremely significant operation aimed at the "decapitation" of the entire Hizb’allah leadership structure and their supporters. It was remarkable in its audacity, planning, and execution, with ramifications that will extend far into the future.
What the heck is a pager?
For younger readers who may not know, in my youth, pagers were all the rage, much like PDA/cell phones are today. If you had a pager, it meant you were somebody. I remember constantly seeing people checking their pagers, presenting an air of superiority—important enough that someone wanted them to return a phone call or meet with them. They represented a personal image of power and importance. However, they could also become a burden when spouses or bosses abused their use, denying personal space.
Personally, I saw through the illusion and detested them. People weren't used to being "available" all the time back then, and I valued my private time, as I still do to this day. I’m a bit nerdy in that way. However, life now denies me much privacy as family demands increasingly weigh on my time. Still, pagers had their utility, especially for alerting political and military leadership quickly. In my early years in the military, pagers were a requirement for commanders and their subordinates.
Pagers are one-way, receive-only communication devices that let the wearer know someone is attempting to contact them. In their earliest versions, they only displayed the sender’s phone number, but as technology evolved, limited text messages could also be sent. This was the precursor to SMS texting and, ultimately, to two-way social media platforms like X (formerly Twitter).
These messages could be anything, including pre-arranged coded messages. Their main benefit is that they are receivers of broadcasted messages; they do not transmit data, which prevents the device, or its wearer, from being tracked. That makes them highly useful for limited communications when your enemy has extensive capabilities for tracking cell phone locations. We did it all the time in Iraq back in 2004, 20 years ago.
Hizb’allah’s leader goes retro..
The latest information suggests that Hizb’allah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, ordered the group’s members to cease using cell phones some time ago, as they were being targeted by Israeli "targeteers" using Signals Intelligence (SIGINT). This led Hizb’allah to implement their fallback communications plan, using broadcast pagers—a seemingly very smart move. Naturally, as the leader who issued the orders, Nasrallah likely wouldn’t bother carrying such a pager himself. Consequently, reports indicate that Nasrallah was not injured in the attack.
The origins of the Gold Apollo pagers, normally manufactured in Taiwan, trace back to a story involving a European company, BAC Consulting, which licensed the manufacturing rights from the Taiwanese company. Around 5,000 devices were built, allegedly in Europe, possibly in Hungary.
It’s said that the operation had been planned for several months, which makes implicit sense. Details are still scarce and subject to revision as more information becomes available. However, bear in mind that no one has an interest in delving too deeply into this matter. Intelligence services typically do not freely offer up information on sources and methods, often wrapping them in cover stories intended to distract and deflect from the truth.
The Logistics involved
This was a highly complex operation that involved tremendous operational security (OPSEC). Israel would have needed to infiltrate the Hizb’allah supply chain, knowing they were ordering 5,000 pagers to replace cell phones, and then arrange to become the primary supplier of those pagers. They would have been required to secure the manufacturing facilities, insert explosives into each pager, one at a time, and likely perform "function checks" prior to shipping them.
They would have had to arrange the purchase order from Hizb’allah, or whoever financed it. Additionally, they would need to covertly ship the pagers, bypassing explosive detection systems and/or dogs through multiple countries, or aboard a flight from Europe to Beirut.
How many individuals would be required to prepare those devices? Five thousand reported explosive pagers, a few months to prepare, 30 days in a month—maybe each individual manufactured a couple of pagers per day, for safety's sake.
Every one of them had to be trained to build the devices, package them safely, and, most importantly, keep their mouths shut throughout the process.
It was truly a formidable task. And whether or not you like the Israelis, they deserve some grudging respect for this operation. I can pretty much guarantee that the Arabs are,
Ramifications
Hizb’allah has just suffered the most catastrophic defeat in its history. The remaining functional leadership is likely overwhelmed by paranoia and confusion, wondering what might happen next. It’s difficult to predict how quickly they can recover, if at all. Critical communications and command networks will be disrupted, and electronic devices of all types will be abandoned, forcing them to resort to much slower means of conveying orders or information. This, of course, works to Israel’s advantage, should they choose to take military action in southern Lebanon.
Furthermore, depending on when the pagers were received and put into operation, Israel likely just managed to map out the entire Hizb’allah upper command network. This speculation was offered to me earlier by a former SpecOps friend of mine, and we are both utterly astounded and awestruck at what we have just witnessed.
One report that I’ve read on my private news feed speculates that Israel decided to initiate the attack after receiving information that several Hizb’allah members had become suspicious about the pagers. It’s suggested, with some logic, that Israel had originally planned to initiate the attack just prior to any actual military incursion against Hizb’allah missile launching sites in southern Lebanon. This makes implicit sense, as it would be the ideal time to sow confusion within their enemy’s decision-making loop, delaying any counterattacks.
In my opinion, one thing now seems certain: every important opponent of Israel in the region will now think twice before carrying their electronic devices. If someone can turn their pager into a bomb, what might they be able to do with cell phones? The only alternative would be to have their phones analyzed by qualified explosives technicians, certifying them as safe. That takes time, expertise, and money.
Will Hizb’allah respond with its own version of a mass attack? It’s possible. They have upwards of 200,000 rockets that they could launch at Israel. However, it requires sufficient launch facilities and trained personnel. It’s unlikely that they can launch all of them in just a few massive strikes, not without the Israelis knowing about it (and they are watching; of that, I am confident). It is also quite likely that Nasrallah will face some backlash for his failure in obtaining and distributing those pagers. He’s the captain of the ship, and someone must be blamed for the deaths of important, and likely wealthy, subordinate leaders who previously formed his power base.
But there will be some kind of response. Arab “honor” demands it, if only to save face, in a ritualistic “tit for tat” display. This is a cultural truism of the Middle East. Certainly, Hizb’allah and their Iranian supporters must do something to preserve their image of authority within Lebanon. While the Lebanese people may publicly express outrage, they see how badly Hizb’allah just got "owned" by the Israelis. And deep inside, they have a grudging respect for Israel. They may not like them, but they respect them. They might complain publicly, but in private, they respect strength. From Israel’s point of view, that is sufficient.
It’s important to remember that Hizb’allah is not the Lebanese government. There are Maronite Christians, Sunnis, and Druze Muslims, all of whom have an ax to grind with Hizb’allah. Jealousy and rivalry run rampant in the country, and it’s possible that we may see an internal move to confront the organization. However, aside from the Maronites, most won’t want to be seen as actively collaborating with the Israelis.
Summation
"The world has just witnessed one of the greatest displays of intelligence work in history, I would opine. And for those on the receiving end of Israel’s wrath, they must be contemplating what other extraordinary feats may lie ahead and how they might plan for and counter them."
https://forward.com/news/breaking-news/206174/mossad-takes-hunt-for-spooks-online/
My apologies for the tardiness of this article. But sometimes, "life happens" and I hope that I've offered some new perspective on the subject.
As a former intelligence professional, supporting our own war against the predecessor of ISIS, AQIZ under Abu Musab Al-Zarqawi, I am familiar with many of the likely tactics the Israelis are engaged in now, but with the advantage of 20 years of technological advances. And while we regularly would track cell phones, and even distributed "burner phones" into the hands of targeted individuals, I don't recall any instance of the use of pager bombs. This is, for now, uniquely an Israeli operation, and I suspect the last time they will have such an opportunity. Hizb'allah, and the rest of the Jihadist world, just got taught an extremely painful lesson about the importance of Operational Security in the modern world.
And in this geographical and culture neighborhood, sadly, might makes right. And Hizb'allah's "forever war" against Israel has destroyed what was once considered the center of finance and culture in the Middle East, Lebanon.
It depends on what period of history we refer to. The Druze certainly originated from within Islam, but then there was a schism.. And now they are ostracized and oppressed by both Shi'a and Sunni.
Interesting discussion can be found here..
https://youtu.be/OmD1G9BnhkA